第一题：

Module 1: Capital Market Expectations, Part 1: Framework and Macro Considerations

In order to stimulate economic performance, Country A has decided to substantially increase government spending and reduce taxes. Assuming net private saving remains unchanged, Country A's net exports will most likely:

A  decrease.

B  remain unchanged.

C  increase.

解析：

A：Correct because the macroeconomic relationship implied by the national income accounting is (X − M) = (S − I) + (T − G), where X − M = net exports, S = saving, I = investment, and T − G = the government surplus. Net exports always equal net private saving (the excess of domestic private saving over investment spending) plus the government surplus. Anything that changes net exports must also change net private saving, the government surplus, or both.

Therefore, with an increase in government spending (G) and a reduction in taxation (T), while net private saving (S – I) remains unchanged, the net exports (X – M) will decrease to keep the national income accounting relationship balanced.

B: Incorrect because with an increase in government spending (G) and a reduction in taxation (T), while net private saving (S – I) remains unchanged, the net exports (X – M) will decrease, not remain unchanged, to keep the national income accounting relationship balanced.

C: Incorrect because with an increase in government spending (G) and a reduction in taxation (T), while net private saving (S – I) remains unchanged, the net exports (X – M) will decrease, not increase, to keep the national income accounting relationship balanced.

第二题

Module 1: Capital Market Expectations, Part 1: Framework and Macro Considerations

A fund manager gathers the following information about the policies, bond yields and yield curve of three countries:

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Cyclical assets will most likely have the best performance in:

解析：

A: Correct because Country 1 has stimulative monetary policy and fiscal policy, low bond yields and steep yield curve, so the country is most likely in the initial recovery phase of the business cycle. During this phase, cyclical assets—and riskier assets, such as small stocks, higher-yield corporate bonds, and emerging market equities and bonds—attract investors and typically perform well.

B: Incorrect because Country 2 has tight monetary policy and fiscal policy, high bond yields and flat to inverted yield curve, so the country is most likely in the slowdown phase of the business cycle. During this phase, the stock market may fall, with interest-sensitive stocks such as utilities and 'quality' stocks with stable earnings, not cyclical assets, performing best.

C: Incorrect because Country 3 has restricting monetary policy and fiscal policy, rising bond yields and flattening yield curve from longest maturities inward, so the country is most likely in the late expansion phase of the business cycle. During this phase, cyclical assets may underperform while inflation hedges such as commodities outperform.