capital outflow 表示CFA知识中的资本账户外流吗?

接着讲CFA知识中的经济学中的问题,考点再讲3个,不知你知道下面的三个知识点吗?

CFA考点六:target exchange rate
A country that maintains a target exchange rate is most likely to have which outcome when its inflation rate rises above the level of the inflation rate in the target country?

  A. An increase in short-term interest rates.

  B. An increase in the domestic money supply.

  C. An increase in its foreign currency reserves.

答案:A is correct. Interest rates are expected to rise to protect the exchange rate target.

解题思路:如果A国盯住B国的汇率,那么A国通胀上涨会导致A国的货币贬值。为了阻止A国货币的贬值,A国可以实施一个紧缩的货币政策,提升利率水平,吸引外资流入,稳定汇率水平。所以A选项正确。

易错点分析:这道题有不少同学会在C选项上犹豫。如果A国增加自己的外汇储备,它相当于与卖出本国的货币,买进外国的货币。那么大量的本国货币投放如市场,类似于实施了一个扩张的货币政策。这会导致A国汇率降低而不是升高。

此外,B选项增加货币供给是一个扩张的货币政策,它会导致利率下降,币值下跌,也不入选。

CFA考点七:Trade restrictions

  A large country can:

  A benefit by imposing a tariff.

  B benefit with an export subsidy.

  C not benefit from any trade restriction.

答案:A is correct. By definition, a large country is big enough to affect the world price of its imports and exports. A large country can benefit by imposing a tariff if its terms of trade improve by enough to outweigh the welfare loss arising from inefficient allocation of resources.

解题思路:在国际贸易领域,大国对一款产品的需求量占比过高,会对该类产品的世界价格水平产生影响。大国设置关税后会大幅降低全球范围对于该种商品的需求量,从而导致该种商品世界价格的下降,大国的消费者因此获利。

易错点分析:注意到,国际贸易中的大国并不是指该国国土面积比较大,或者指该国的GDP比较高。而是指该国对某种商品的需求量占比*高。对于这题,有很多CFA报名考生会选C选项。既然A选项入选,C选项就错误。对于这个结论,大家可以记忆一下。

CFA考点八:经常性账户与资本流
Because of a sharp decline in real estate values, the household sector has increased the fraction of disposable income that it saves. If output and investment spending remain unchanged, which of the following is most likely correct?

  A A decrease in the government deficit.

  B A decrease in net exports and increased capital inflow.

  C An increase in net exports and increased capital outflow.

答案:C is correct. The fundamental relationship among saving, investment, the fiscal balance, and the trade balance is S=I+(G-T)+(X-M). Given the levels of output and investment spending, an increase in saving (reduction in consumption)must be offset by either an increase in the fiscal deficit is not one of the choices, so an increase in net exports and corresponding increase in net capital outflows (increased lending to foreigners and/or increased purchases of assets from foreigners) is the correct response.

这题需要运用S=I+(G-T)+(X-M)这个公式。题中说到房地产的价值下降从而增加储蓄。当投资(I)不变,根据该公式我们可以知道储蓄(S)增加时财政赤字(G-T)和净出口(X-M)会增加。A选项政府赤字下降显然是错误的,B选项的净出口下降也是错误的,因此选择C。
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易错点分析:这个公式是由总收入=总支出联立得来的。即把C+I+G+X-M=C+S+T转化一下可得S=I+(G-T)+(X-M)。S为储蓄;I为投资;(G-T>0)为财政赤字;(X-M)为净出口。

而此题的capital outflow 表示CFA知识中的资本账户外流。进出口代表的是经常性账户,它和资本账户是此消彼长的关系。当进出口增加时,贸易盈余所产生的多余外汇就要到国外市场进行投资,所以资本账户资金外流,这便是net capital outflows。